Gorilla’s Apecast
9-1
September has arrived with a vengeance! Three tropical systems are currently active including category 3 earl running NW just off our coast. Earl’s first pulse of swell has already arrived at the 20 mile bouy, which is bouncing at a very healthy 8 feet at 15 seconds. The NE winds are making a mess of it right now, and should continue to do so through the day and into tomorrow morning, as they clock around to the north and blow 15-20 knots. The swell will ramp up dramatically through the day, probably peaking tomorrow around midday. Most spots will be out of control and sideshore early, but we will see some late offshore winds with double overhead surf for the afternoon/evening. Could be Huge and Epic late. Friday is going to be GOING OFF- still plenty of swell in the morning with 3-4 foot overhead sets, easing though the day to head high plus in the afternoon. Winds will be light offshore from the SW. Don’t miss friday morning! Satuday will see leftovers in the chest- head high range, fading dramatically as the day wears on, and sunday looks pretty small with perhaps a few waist- stomach high remnants.
After Earl, Fiona is next in line, and as I anticipated, the forecast for this system is still very problematic. Dissipation is still a possibility, but is less likely than yesterday, and the system should remain a TS as it tracks NW of the islands. If the system weakens it will probably be sloughed off to the NE by Earl’s outflow, but IF it strengthens enough and slows, there is a chance it could be trapped under a new subtropical ridge building in the wake of the trough which recurves earl. At this point, it could meander between the islands and bermuda for a while spraying us with more swell, or begin to track westward towards the coast again.
Last up in the tropics is TD 9, which is getting its act together in the eastern atlantic. This system should gradually intensify as it tracks generally westward, and could be a significant threat down the line, as the pattern in the atlantic is shifting with the coming of an upwards phase of the MJO (madden julien oscillation) which will help to shift the ridging pattern to a negative NAO (North atlantic oscillation). Basically, this means that there will be more upward lift conducive to convective formation (upward MJO) and a weaker but bridged azores bermuda (AB) ridge, and less of a chance for troughs to recurve systems off the eastern seaboard. This pattern means more hits from the SE US to the Gulf, so heads up.
As many readers probably know, one of my best friends, Keith Kenton, was recently killed in a tragic accident in Nicaragua that also claimed the lives of two other local surfers. He left behind his wife Daniela, daughter Kirra(5) and son Cole(11 months) Keith’s surf charter business down there was the family’s sole source of income, and they need help starting a new life up here in the states, so some friends and family started the Kenton Kids Fund. Go to their facebook page of the same name if anyone wants to make contributions to help the family out or learn more, and there will be a fund raiser at Indialantic Long Doggers from 4- close on Friday, where the owners have agreed to donate 10% of their proceeds to the cause, so come have some beers and grub after a long day of perfect surf. Also, Keith’s memorial paddleout will be 9 am sunday at ocean ave in melbourne beach.
Lastly, the CFB season begins Thursday, and the Apecast Picks are back! For thursday I like two first half lines: Ohio St -16.5 and USC -13. Good luck.
I go ape-shit on you“!!
